Post Road Advisors
Dec 03, 2009
Excellent article - though alarming.
Quantitative models are excellent for ILLUSTRATING the effects of a projected financial performance, sensitivity to exogenous factors and repayment probability of a credit asset , with an adequate return to investors - but they are not a "rock solid" basis for investment.
Regression, portfolio and Monte Carlo analyses - to name a few - of probability of performance are certainly discussable but highly fungiable.
While the university endowment funds, investment funds and funds-of-funds, named in the article state it wasn't their fault that universities lost so much money because the market drop wasn't perceived in advance, it's small comfort to parents paying the tuition bill for kids in universities.
That is exactly the point...
There is no replacement for basic credit work by each investor on each asset.
It is a hard job but endowment and "endowment-fundss" must know what they are investing in and not rely on other peoples's credit analyses and then draw the market Betas and then assign a probability of default and consider the investment spread and declare an investment worthy - when they do not know the basics of the company, industry, management or product produced.
Well, that's the credit side.
On the other side is that universities got themselves locked into longterm construction and expansion projects with Federal and State matching funds and relied on performance from investments in the endowment funds and funds-of-funds to mitigate tuition increases. If one of the partners do not come through then the other is in trouble too. What is interesting is that LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) was the precursor of the "portfolio risk management" move.
http://www.erisk.com/Learning/CaseStudies/Long-TermCapitalManagemen.asp
So to mimic an old IBM slogan, "THINK!"
Maurice Johnson
Post Road Advisors
203 450 2498
We review all aspects of an investment and review the management, product and market risk as well as the soundness of a portfolio.
Brett Hyland
Nov 18, 2009
One of the tenets of the Yale model was that too high a price is paid for liquidity. ...It has certainly yet to be proven otherwise, so far.