anoop
Feb 15, 2010
This is pure nonsense
You cant possibly expect a secular bull market to last forever. The last bull market ran for 18 years (1982 to 2000), that was one of the longest. It is bound to be followed by a consolidation that lasts perhaps just as long
The japanese experience so far has taught us that their secular bear (1990-2010) is yet to equal the length of the preceding bull market (1968-1990)(in terms of number of years).
Also, a cursory comparison of the DOW post 1929 with the NASDAQ post 2000 reveals a more than passing semblance. Deflationary conditions are often resolved by the eventual attractiveness of that market in terms of labor costs, real estate prices etc(meaning that prices will likely head lower in the US before they go any higher). The gold & silver markets post 1980, DOW post 1929, NASDAQ post 2000, NIKKEI post 1990 all look the same and yet gold has been able to fully recover so did the DOW in the 50's..we gotta wait our turn after the NIKKEI (which could be the next one to run higher)
Jason
Jan 13, 2010
Leaving aside the big question about what's going to perform from here, I'd just like to point out that Bateman's comment about adjusting for inflation doesn't make sense. Outperformance is outperformance, whether you strip the inflation out of the returns on both asset classes or leave it in...
Bateman
Jan 06, 2010
What a bunch of hogwash. Reminds me of the Business Week cover in the early 80's proclaiming the Death of Equities. The fact the so much $ has gone into treasuries (which were the worst performing asset class in 2009 btw) and/or chased yield only reinforces my belief that good companies, with shares that are fairly valued will outperform over time.
And this bunk about debt outperforming equity over the last 40 years - try adjusting that idiotic stat for inflation sweetie.
headlocal
Dec 29, 2009
“My belief is that stocks are very attractive now relative to other asset classes. We’re looking forward to better prospects from here,” proclaims professor Siegel.
Obama hopes so. Otherwise there will be no class enemies with wealth to pillage by aggressive taxation, "because it's fair" (BHO quote).
Too bad this "asset class" accounts for maybe 20% of job creation in a U6>17% economy. With the VCs' carried interest under fiscal attack, and 50% of Silicon Valley's successful startups already founded by immigrants (legal, 8% of population), the next wave of globalization will be the the startup culture itself, to the several economies aggressively looking to import entrepreneurial talent. Along with 50-80% of worthwhile job growth, impoverishing the consumer base needed to fuel purchase of the largely discretionary offerings of the big equity offerings.
Good luck, Jeremy; best wishes, Barack.
GS
Dec 28, 2009
"It was a phenomenal 25-year jag for stocks — enriching many investors but also lining the pockets of Wall Street firms."
Not really. The Wall Street firms were mediocre investments even during the boom years. The employees/management of the Wall Street firms benefited, but not the shareholders.
JB
Dec 22, 2009
A bold attempt to replace Time Magazine as the ultimate media contrary indicator!
