Chuck
Feb 15, 2010
We should all be mindful that population growth by itself, while impressive, will not make China wealthier on a per capita basis, which is the most important measure of wealth. In fact, China, along with the remainder of the developing world, are actually getting poorer per capita, even though their aggregate GDPs are increasing at high rates; the developed world is getting richer because our population growth is under control. Wealth will be concentrated in the hands of the wealthy, to the exclusion of the poor class, as has always been the case in the developed world. Why? As the author, Mr Chancellor indicates, there is no respect for the individual and property rights. How is China going to lead the way? They have no innovation, no research and development, and virtually no education. Only 50% of the nation has running water. The intellectual property of their industrial revolution (which they are no going through) is owned by the United States. Talk to an American businessman who does business with China...American businesses will not allow China to control any competitive technology because they WILL steal it. I talked to a J&J exec a few years ago--the Chinese offficials demanded to know the technology behind the making of a certain contact lense for supposed regulatory purposes...the execs saw right through that...ever wonder why the CDs containing Microsoft's operating system are produced in Europe...because they will steal it... survey an IBM or Motorolla exec... they have incredible problems with chip suppliers producing batches of chips and reselling them on the Black market in competition with the manufacturer. Bottom line...USA will be on top for the foreseable future...ask yourself...where's the innovation.
By the way, just because Buffett bought a battery company in China, it does not mean a thing...he once purchased a stamp collecting company for millions and today it's worthless...
Chuck
PZ
Feb 11, 2010
What concerns me and should concern all of us is China may not be the only disaster waiting to happen. Apparently, Adam Smith could not envision the egregious effect of the prodigality, misconduct and unproductive hands of our private "financial engineers", but could with public officals given our trust. What is clear is the unbelievable waste and degradation that "unproductive hands" cause where ever they are. It's obvious there is more than one interest group and country that needs to go to "rehab".
hedonist
Feb 05, 2010
True, there are various inputs on China and its bubble lately; but out of the plethora of viewpoints if the wheat is sifted from the chaff, you still have the cream of the savants like george soros, jeremy grantham, & andrew smithers who all concur in varying degrees that China is a disaster waiting to happen.
charliezap
Jan 28, 2010
Watch out America! It is all too easy to dismiss the enormous significance of economic growth in China over the past 30 years by implying that it will somehow come to a halt because of corruption. Undoubtedly, there is corruption at all levels in China, but there is also MOMENTUM -- 30 years of growth at over 10% annually. China seemingly has now overtaken Japan to become the second largest economy in the world, and, given current growth prospects, it is not impossible for China to become the largest economy in the world.
US growth prospects, on the other hand, are not so hot. We have become institutionalized, bureaucratized, politicized. It is virtually impossible to attain major goals, such as energy independence, due to organized opposition, be it due to environmentalists, politicians, or special interests. The USA is so 20th century. The 21st century will be China's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
http://129.3.20.41/eps/dev/papers/0512/0512002.pdf
Chm
Jan 21, 2010
What is interesting that when I read and view PBS telivision shows by Niall Ferguson, the Harvard professor, it seems quite opposite. His views are that money/wealth etc are being created and transferred from Venice, Amsterdam, London and to New York but it will be in China in the next decade. Could be that corruption/beaurocracy will halt or dealy that, change historical migration of wealth? Or they will self correct themselve and continue.
roy
Jan 21, 2010
I would never underestimate the power of world media culture to effect China. And frankly I think they'll be more powerful than these informal power centers. Regardless of the state security apparatus and local mobs, ordinary people are importing huge amounts of world culture and ideas. And there has been a generation or more of very good basic schooling.
I think a new, moderate bourgeois power base will dwarf the petty local mobs. Look how the mob in the US was whisked away because, even with its criminality, it couldn't comprehend the changes in the culture around it. (How many Americans do you know who bet the horses?)
